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A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

Overloaded? I’ll bet you are. We all lead busy lives. You fall into bed exhausted at the end of the day, feeling that you’ve got a lot done. Perhaps you are getting lots done. But is it stuff that really matters? Or is it just stuff? It’s time to wise up. You will never clear that list. Get used to the idea that some things will never get done. Not delayed. Not rescheduled. Not re-prioritized. But simply dropped. And from now on, instead of trying to clear that endless to-do list, you’re going to do a much smarter thing. You’re going to just do the important stuff. And the brilliant thing is, you already have the power to do this. That power is to do less. Soon enough, you’ll have the space to enjoy the moment, be creative, find new or better ways of doing things, get ideas, and spot opportunities you would have missed when you were running around. In short – you’ll be happier. Much happier. As soon as you stop doing, the power of doing less will begin to flow.

A sensible solution to getting our economy back on track Pessimism is ubiquitous throughout the Western World as the pressing issues of massive debt, high unemployment, and anemic economic growth divide the populace into warring political camps. Right-and Left-wing ideologues talk past each other, with neither side admitting the other has any good ideas. In American Gridlock, leading economist and political theorist H. Woody Brock bridges the Left/Right divide, illuminating a clear path out of our economic quagmire. Arguing from first principles and with rigorous logic, Brock demonstrates that the choice before us is not between free market capitalism and a government-driven economy. Rather, the solution to our problems will require enactment of constructive policies that allow «true» capitalism to flourish even as they incorporate social policies that help those who truly need it. Brock demonstrates how deductive logic (as opposed to ideologically driven data analysis) can transform the way we think about these problems and lead us to new and different solutions that cross the ideological divide. Drawing on new theories such as game theory and the economics of uncertainty that are based upon deductive logic, Brock reveals fresh ideas for tackling issues central to the 2012 U.S, Presidential election and to the nation’s long-run future: Demonstrating that the concept of a government “deficit” is highly problematic since it blinds us to the distinction between a good deficit and a bad deficit – where a deficit is good if it results from borrowing dedicated to productive investment rather than to unproductive spending. Deriving the need for a U.S. Marshall Plan dedicated to very high levels of profitable infrastructure spending as the solution to today’s Lost Decade of high unemployment Drawing upon a logical extension of the Law of Supply and Demand to demonstrate how the health-care spending crisis can be completely resolved by letting supply increase at a faster rate than demand Utilizing the theory of bargaining inaugurated by the “Beautiful Mind” mathematician John F. Nash, Jr., to help us avoid being repeatedly duped in our negotiations with China Making use of a completely new theory of market risk recently developed at Stanford University to demonstrate why dramatically limiting leverage is the key reform to preventing future Perfect Storms, whereas hoping to banish “greed” amounts to whistling Dixie Deducting from first principles a solution to the contentious issue of fair shares of the economic pie, a solution that integrates the two fundamental norms of “to each according to his contribution” and “to each according to his need.” Profound, timely and important, American Gridlock cuts through the stale biases of the Right and Left, advances new ways of thinking, and provides creative solutions to the problems that threaten American society.

Emerging market investment advice from a seasoned pro Mark Mobius, the man the Wall Street Journal has proclaimed «the King of the Emerging Market Funds,» spends eight months of the year traveling the globe in search of hidden market bargains overseas and in Passport to Profits: Why the Next Investment Windfalls Will be Found Abroad and How to Grab Your Share, Revised Edition, he shares what he's learned. In a globetrotting tour taking you from the Baltic coast to Brazil, Mobius reveals his own experience-tested guidelines for investing abroad. Analyzing companies and new markets, identifying potential pitfalls and overlooked values, crunching numbers and meeting the local players, he knows where true growth is, and with this book in hand, you will too. Presenting a straightforward, practical investment philosophy based on one key, indisputable fact: that the rest of the world's economies have far more potential for growth than our own, Passport to Profits shows even the most casual investor how to view investing abroad, how to devise a global investment strategy, and the pros and cons of buying individual stocks or mutual funds. The development of stock market infrastructures in emerging economies has opened up potential for impressive returns, and this book is your guide to cashing in. Illustrates the four keys to determining if a country is investment-friendly and how to gauge political climates for great investment opportunities Analyses the 2008 crisis and its implications for the development of the emerging financial markets Explains the rules for investing abroad that too many investors fail to understand An adventurous and honest insight into the art of investing in emerging international markets, Passport to Profits provides the hands-on experience you need to balance the risks and reap the rewards of global investing, right from the comfort of your home.

Prosper from the profitable opportunities of the next financial market super boom In 1976, Yale Hirsch predicted a fifteen-year super boom—a move in the stock market of 500% or more. His forecast proved accurate as the market rose and continued upward, eventually posting growth over 1,000% just before the tech crash in 2000. In Super Boom, Jeffrey Hirsch, President of the Hirsch Organization and Editor in Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, unveils the next market expansion. Building on his father's research from 1976, Hirsch has discovered that meteoric rises in stock indices are due to specific catalysts predominantly outside of the financial markets. History has a way of repeating itself, especially in the financial markets. The American economy, and subsequently the world economy, has always existed in a cycle of boom and bust: gold, grain, oil, technology, and most recently, real estate, have all bubbled and popped. The key to investing profitably is spotting macroeconomic historical trends and positioning to reap the benefits. Step-by-step, Hirsch puts together the pieces of this puzzle by revealing the central drivers of a super boom. Examines how new cultural paradigm-shifting technologies, as well as peace between major wars, could fuel a super boom Discusses how the massive injection of money by the government, in response to the global financial crisis and the Great Recession, as well as wartime spending, will eventually create an inflationary environment The data and research found here is based on historical information and the boom-and-bust cycle of the past century As markets and economies struggle over the next several years, remember to keep your eye on the future and get ready for the coming super boom and the next 500% move in the market. With this book as your guide, you'll benefit from the insights that only Jeffrey Hirsch can provide.

Why some team members go the extra mile while others don't–and how to get more out of everyone Business leaders know that some members of their teams go above and beyond while others get by doing the bare minimum. The question on everyone's lips is how to turn every member of your organization into a top performer. Beyond the Call uses case studies, the real-world stories of real managers, and groundbreaking research from NYU's Stern School of Business, to answer important questions about performance and offer real solutions for building high-performing organizations and teams. This book will show you how to coax every member of you team to do more, leaving behind mediocrity for excellence. 'Beyond the Call addresses a topic that goes to the very heart of what makes organisations successful in the 21st Century…this book provides a useful framework to help managers understand more about the discretionary effort. Beyond the Call outlined discretionary effort principles that all managers should benefit from adopting' Jonathan Emms, Head of Primary Care, Country Lead, Pfizer UK

A practical guide to attacking the most common of phobias: fear of failure A practical guide to attacking the most common of phobias: fear of failure Since its publication in 2011, What's Stopping You? has offered readers a hard look at the quality of their careers and personal lives. For those who'd give themselves a solid «C+», this brutally honest guide to taking stock also offers the keys to self-improvement. By dismantling the fear inhibiting all achievement—fear of failure—author Robert Kelsey offers a set of seven steps designed to help readers map out their actions, and attain what once seemed elusive milestones. Written for the frustrated underachiever or anyone who feels like one, this unique book addresses can the real obstacles hindering both professional and personal growth. Includes a new chapter with tactics for overcoming a fear of failure Explores methods for dealing with different types of people in a host of situations, such as getting a new job, pitching for new work, making presentations, or communicating clearly in an argument With a Foreword by one of Britain's most successful businessman, Luke Johnson, this unique handbook to overcoming the most basic of fears is a must for anyone who would like to upgrade the quality of their life.

Reveals the powerful and undermining effects of stress on good decision making-and what leaders can do about it The ability to make sound and timely decisions is the mark of a good leader. But when leaders with otherwise strong track records suddenly begin making poor decisions-as seen in the recent corporate scandals that rocked the business world-the impact can be widespread. In The Stress Effect, leadership expert Henry L. Thompson argues that stress is often the real culprit behind this leadership failure: when leaders' stress levels become sufficiently elevated-whether in the boardroom or on the front line of a manufacturing process-their ability to effectively use their emotional intelligence and cognitive ability in tandem to make wise decisions is significantly impaired. Until now, experts have argued that increasing your emotional intelligence will help you cope with and manage stress. This book suggests that stress actually blocks access to your emotional intelligence as well as your cognitive ability, two critical components in the decision-making process. This book Shows how stress adversely affects the performance of even the most savvy leaders Reveals the truth about one of the prime factors behind the current failure of leadership Offers a solid prescription for building a «stress resilient system» and arms leaders with best practices for managing specific stressors that take the biggest toll on decision making Is written by an award-winning organizational psychologist and leadership consultant whose clients include a roster of Fortune 500 companies A groundbreaking and insightful resource for leaders, The Stress Effect reopens the dialogue on stress, its effect on decision making, and what to do about it.

The complete guide to the business of running a successful legal practice Many attorneys in small and mid-size practices are experts on the law, but may not have considered their practice as much from a business perspective. Michael Gerber’s The E-Myth Attorney fills this void, giving you powerful advice on everything you need to run your practice as a successful business, allowing you to achieve your goals and grow your practice. Featuring Gerber's signature easy-to-understand, easy-to-implement style, The E-Myth Attorney features: A complete start-up guide you can use to get your practice off the ground quickly, as well as comprehensive action steps for maximizing the performance of an existing practice Industry specific advice from two recognized legal experts that have developed a highly successful legal practice using Gerber’s principles Gerber’s universal appeal as a recognized expert on small businesses who has coached, taught, and trained over 60,000 small businesses The E-Myth Attorney is the last guide you'll ever need to make the difference in building or developing your successful legal practice.

Distilled small business advice for accounting practices Many accountants in small and mid-size practices are experts when it comes to their professional knowledge, but may not have considered their practice as much from a business perspective. Michael Gerber's The E-Myth Accountant fills this void, giving you powerful advice on everything you need to run your practice as a successful business, allowing you to achieve your goals and grow your practice. Featuring Gerber's signature easy-to-understand, easy-to-implement style, The E-Myth Accountant features Gerber's universal appeal as a recognized expert on small businesses who has coached, taught, and trained over 60,000 small businesses A recognized and widely respected co-author and leader in the accounting field The E-Myth Accountant is the last guide you'll ever need to make the difference in building or developing your successful accounting practice.

A dramatic look at fraud's role in our financial markets-and how you can protect yourself Fraud In the Markets reveals the critical role fraud played in the global financial crisis-even as many of the perpetrators continue to go unpunished. Shedding light on the reckless conduct of the former senior executives at major Wall Street firms such as Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and others just before their collapse, this timely book shows how the culture of «anything goes» on Wall Street fueled the innovation of exotic but deadly asset-backed securities. A frank insider look at the most dramatic economic and business headlines in recent memory, you will find revealing discussion of The egregiously fraudulent lending practices that engulfed the entire US mortgage industry The brazenly deceptive marketing of asset-backed securities A road map to prevent similar disasters from recurring Fraud in the Markets offers forward-looking advice, with practical guidelines for protecting yourself and your company from various forms of fraud that were found to have played a role in the current economic and financial crisis.

A provocative look at the remarkable contributions of high-skill immigrant entrepreneurs in America Both a revelation and a call-to-action, Immigrant, Inc. explores the uncommon skill and drive of America's new immigrants and their knack for innovation and entrepreneurship. From the techies who created icons of the new economy-Intel, Google, eBay and Sun Microsystems-to the young engineers tinkering with solar power and next-generation car batteries, immigrants have proven themselves to be America's competitive advantage. With a focus on legal immigrants and their odyssey from homeland to start-up, this unique book Explores the psyche, cultural nuances, skills, and business strategies that help immigrants achieve remarkable success Explains how immigrants will create the American jobs of the future-if we let them Whether you are a CEO, a civic leader, or an entrepreneur yourself, Immigrant, Inc. warns of the peril of anti-immigrant attitudes and a hostile immigration process. It also explains how any American can tap their «inner immigrant» to transform their lives and their companies. Written by an immigration lawyer who represents immigrant entrepreneurs and a journalist who specializes in international culture, the authors have a front-row seat to this phenomenon, offering a fascinating glimpse into the mindset of the most persistent entrepreneurs of the era.