7. Joe Roeber, The Evolution of Oil Markets: Trading Instruments and Their Role in Oil Price Formation (Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1993).

8. CME Group, “2010 Commodities Trading Challenge: Competition Rules and Procedures” (“anticipating”).

9. Interview.

10. Jim O’Neill to author; Jim O’Neill, “Building Better Global Economic BRICs, Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No. 66, November 30, 2001; Financial Times, January 15, 2010.

11. Interview with Mark Fisher.

12. Interview with Robert Shiller. Шиллер дает следующее определение спекулятивного пузыря: «Ситуация, в которой новости, касающиеся цены, подогревают энтузиазм инвесторов, и в силу психологии они начинают заражать энтузиазмом друг друга. К тому же процесс усиливается историями, оправдывающими рост цены и привлекающими все больше и больше групп инвесторов, которые, несмотря на сомнения по поводу реальной стоимости вложений, поддаются соблазну в какой-то мере из-за зависти к другим, а в какой-то из-за азарта». В случае нефти, однако, большинство инвесторов уверены и практически не сомневаются в том, что они считают «реальной» (или будущей) стоимостью нефти. См. Robert Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed. (New York: Broadway Books, 2005), p. 2.

13. Peter Jackson and Keith Eastwood, “Finding the Critical Numbers: What Are the Real Decline Rates of Global Oil Production?” IHS CERA, November 2007.

14. Mohsin S. Khan, “The 2008 Oil Price ‘Bubble, ’” policy brief, Peterson Institute for International Economics, August 2009; Wall Street Journal, August 17, 2010.

15. CalPERS, “CalPERS Sets Guidelines for New Asset Class – Commodities, Forestland, Inflation-Linked Bonds,” February 19, 2008; Bloomberg, February 28, 2008; Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, May 12, 2008; interview with David Davis.

16. The Wall Street Journal, May 17, 2008 (“more oil”); Jeffrey Curie et al., “A Lesson from Long-Dated Oil: A Steadily Rising Price Forecast,” Goldman Sachs Energy Watch, May 16, 2008 (“structural bull market”).

17. Edward Morse, “Oil Dot-com,” Lehman Brothers Energy Special Report, May 2008; interview with Edward Morse; Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, June 2, 2008 (“biggest ramification”).

18. New York Times, May 23, 2008 (“gouging the American public”); May 22, 2008 (“ethical compass”).

19. Interview, Bloomberg, June 16, 2008 (travel industry); interview with David Davis.

20. The New York Times, June 23, 2008, June 20, 2008 (“deliberately chosen”); The Wall Street Journal, June 23, 2008, Associated Press, June 20, 2008 (memo).

21. Interview with David Davis; Oil Bubble or New Reality: How Will Skyrocketing Oil Prices Affect the U. S. Economy: Hearings Before the Joint Economic Committee, U. S. Congress, 110th Congress, 2nd Session, June 25, 2008, p. 10.

22. California State Board of Equalization, Fuel Taxes Division, Statistics & Reports – 2008, at http://www.boe.ca.gov/sptaxprog/spftrpts08.htm.

23. The Pew Campaign for Fuel Efficiency, A History of Fuel Economy: One Decade of Innovation, Two Decades of Inaction, January 2, 2011.

24. Admiral Dennis Blair, testimony, U. S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, May 3, 2007; Energy Security Leadership Council, Recommendations to the Nation on Reducing U. S. Oil Dependence, December 2006.

25. Interviews; James Hamilton, “Oil and the Economy: The Impact of Rising Global Demand on the U. S. Economy,” hearings, Joint Economic Committee, U. S. Congress, May 20, 2009, pp. 27–29; interview with Rick Wagoner, Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, July 14, 2008.

26. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010 (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2010), pp. 605–11.

27. The New York Times, July 16, 2008; Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, July 21, 2008.

28. Benjamin S. Bernanke, “Economic Policy: Lessons from History,” speech, Center for the Study of the Presidency and the Congress, April 8, 2010; Hilary Till, “The Oil Markets: Let the Data Speak for Itself,” EDHEC Working Paper, October 2008, p. 22.

29. Financial Times, September 8, 2009.

30. Interview with Robert Shiller.

1. PetroChina Company Limited, Global Offering, March27, 2000.

2. Cheng Li, ed., China’s Emerging Middle Class: Beyond Economic Transformation (Washington, D. C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2010).

3. George W. Bush, Decision Points (New York: Crown, 2010), p. 427.

4. Interview with Zhou Qingzu; interview with Wang Tao; Eliot Blackwelder, “Petroleum Resources of China and Siberia,” Mining and Metallurgy 187, July 1922 (“never produce”).

5. H. C. Ling, The Petroleum Industry of the People’s Republic of China (Palo Alto: Hoover Institution Press, 1975), p. 237; Yu Qiuli, minister of petroleum from 1958 to 1964, from Yu Qiuli, YuQiuli: Huiyilu (Memoirs) (Beijing: Liberation Army Press, 1996), p. 1003, cited in Erica Downs, “China’s Quest for Oil Self-Sufficiency in the 1960s,” unpublished manuscript, 2001, p. 5 (“cut off”).

6. Erica Downs, “China’s Quest for Oil Self-sufficiency in the 1960s.”.

7. Ling, The Petroleum Industry of the People’s Republic of China, pp. 152–59, 188–89, 209, 230–39; interview with Zhou Qingzu.

8. Interview with Zhou Qingzu.

9. Henry A. Kissinger to the President, May 7, 1971; Kissinger to Ambassador Farland, June 22, 1971; Kissinger to Farland, late June 1971, the National Security Archive; Henry A. Kissinger, White House Years (Boston: Little Brown, 1979), pp. 738–41.

10. Erica Downs, “China’s Energy Rise,” in Brantly Womack, China’s Rise in Historical Perspective (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2010), p. 181 (“petroleum export – led”); Downs III, p. 24 (“must export”); Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2002), ch. 7.

11. Joseph Fewsmith, Dilemmas of Reform in China: Political Confl ict and Economic Debate (New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1994), p. 17.

12. Interview.

13. Interview with Zhou Qingzu; PetroChina Company Limited, Global Off ering, p. 73.

14. Interview with Zhou Jiping.

15. Julie Jiang and Jonathan Sinton, Overseas Investments by Chinese National Oil Companies (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2011), p. 22; Erica Downs, Inside China Inc.: China Development Bank’s Cross-Border Energy Deals, John L. Thornton China Center Monograph Series, no. 3, March 2011 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2011).

16. Moscow Times, September 28, 2010 (“new start”).

17. Interview (“throwing a match”); Frank J. Gaffney Jr., Statement of Frank J. Gaffney Jr., hearing, “National Security Implications of the Possible Merger of the China National Off-shore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with Unocal Corporation,” before the Committee on Armed Services, House of Representatives, July 13, 2005, pp. 6, 8; interview with Fu Chengyu; Xinhua, October 12, 2006 (“talking about the win-win”); Chevron, “Chevron Acquires Interest in Three Deepwater Exploration Blocks in China,” September 7, 2010 (“welcome the opportunity”); interview.

18. Erica S. Downs, “Business Interest Groups in Chinese Politics: The Case of the Oil Companies” in China’s Changing Political Landscape: Prospects for Democracy, ed. Cheng Li (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 2008); interview with Zhou Jiping; Jiang and Sinton, Overseas Investments by Chinese National Oil Companies, pp. 7, 25; Erica Downs, “Who’s Afraid of China’s Oil Companies?” Energy Security: Economics, Politics, Strategy, and Implications (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2010), ch. 4; Fu Chengyu, speech, CERAWeek, February 2006; interviews.